Well, now there is a headline for ya. Is it possible that we could see Dow 18,200 by end of 2014. I would have to say, it is possible. Will it happen, that I can not say, but I do see a path for price to take it there if the market cooperates.
Some people may not have any idea on where or when the market will stop and that is OK. As day traders it makes no difference if the market is going up or down, but we can look deeper within the structure of price to see if there is an unobstructed path for price to travel to such a number. I would say that there is and I will show you one simple thing that can reveal that price to you. I won’t do it today, because I have to many charts to put up and don’t want to crowd out the material just in case there may be those that miss it. Tomorrow is Friday and that would be a good day to post this, so I will talk about it today and post a chart of that tomorrow that will show you what I mean.
What I show tomorrow is just an exercise in “exposure”, to the possible path of price. Currently, you have to give the edge to the bulls and rightly so, they have earned it. There is a lot of speculation that easy money from the Fed is and has fueled the move. That may be the case, but when we are talking about price performance in the index, it does not matter how it gets there or what is driving it, but the power of price to drive to those levels is just about what it will take to get everyone invested.
Currently, there is a lot of doubters out there and as we come into September, which is typically one the worst trading month of the year. A month that many a market crash has taken place. October is right behind it, and with the two months, I could only imagine that the shorts are loading up for the big drop or market crash as some would say. It might happen, but not until certain levels are taken out. This is what I said back in November of last year. I thought we may have seen the high then, but said, that is of no matter. What does matter, is that we stay above a certain level, a level I gave back then, and we did. That kept the market alive and healthy to continue its advance and here we are today, so much higher.
The same can be said here today, that if we stay above Dow 16325, we are in good shape. If we break that level, it will become a trigger point for additional selling in huge amounts and will likely see much lower prices.
Major Stock Market sell offs have almost always been tied to the “raising of interest rates”. No one is talking about raising rates now, but early next year. If that is the case, you have a monetary policy in addition to what I will show tomorrow supporting “the possibility” that we could see this path of price continue to its target area.
With all of that said, I again think it is very possible that on this day 9-11-14, we could see Dow 18,200 by end of 2014. Again, as day traders, it makes no difference, but I am open to the possibility that this is possible and if the number I gave earlier Dow 16,325 breaks, we will be looking at new downside possibilities. Until that time, the path of price is still up.
I hope you come back tomorrow to see what it is that I am going to show in the big picture Dow Jones target price for 2014.
I have not posted again for a few days, but will catch up. I did no trading for most of the week so far. I took one small scalp trade late at session end yesterday for -3 ticks on the ES emini futures and that was it. Today, I had a regular day, but it was a long day. I took breaks in between but picked up a nice session end daily goal.
I have a few charts from my last posting and put them up below. One chart will cover about 4 session but will show where I stopped and where I started up again. The big chart is from my T-3 Trade Screen but the zoomed in view of that larger chart package. In any case, you can see the bigger market turns for several sessions and as I came back into the market. The charts below.
Friday 9-5-14 below;
My larger T-3 Trader Screen Chart, but the smaller zoomed chart of that screen below;
Today, Thursdays regular T-2 smaller chart I usually show below;
I promise that tomorrow I will post the information to back up what I said in my blog here today. So be sure to come back for that. Best trades to you all. Vince